28 sep
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An American complains to an Australian journalist “My vote doesn’t count… but I’m still going to vote”. It’s the Electoral College that counts and there’s only 7 states left that will decide whether Obama or McCain inherit the biggest mess in history. But don’t panic. The latest Michigan poll gives Obama a 5% gap putting the state with Obama instead of being a Tossup. CNN now gives Obama a 9% gap in Pennsylvania (Joe Biden was born there & represents next door Delaware). These 2 states give the Obama camp 255 of the 270 electoral college votes they need. The New York Times still lists another 6 states as Tossups (Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada & Arizona) but Florida has also come into play with a 48%:48% CNN poll.
So, as long as the electoral votes in his camp stay steady, there are now 4 independent pathways to an Obama victory. If he wins either Ohio (ahead) or Florida (dead-even) he wins straightup. If he wins Virginia (ahead) and any other tossup state he wins. Or, the long shot, if he wins New Hampshire (ahead), Colorado (ahead) and New Mexico (behind), or any other ‘red’ state, he wins without needing Ohio, Virginia or Florida.
Of course standing against those pathways is the Supreme Court and a mass of extremist media outlets like Fox News. On the other hand there is a 5th way he might win – any combination, or all, of the above and they’ll start to call it a landslide. An Obama victory won’t solve the planet’s problems but it might give America a chance to avoid destroying itself and taking the rest of us with it. It’s a chance. The rest of the world hopes you take it.
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